A smarter way to forecast rates and volume using scenario-based insight
Rate and lock volume forecasts can be explored, explained, and stress-tested as conditions change, providing clearer insight into what is driving the market and what those shifts could mean for pricing, planning, and production.
Built for real-world planning decisions
Forecasting is not a single answer. It is about understanding how that answer changes under different conditions. The most valuable forecasts help answer questions such as:
What happens to mortgage rates if the Federal Reserve cuts rates more than expected?
What is the rate forecast if there is an unexpected spike in inflation over the next six months?
How does the lock volume forecast change if oil prices remain above $90 a barrel for the year?
Virtual Economist supports these conversations by helping teams explore scenarios, revisit assumptions, and align around a shared view of the market as conditions evolve.
Market insight only Optimal Blue can provide
Virtual Economist applies broad economic signals at scale, informed by how mortgage activity is observed across the Optimal Blue platform. The result is forecasting insight that reflects real market dynamics rather than general assumptions.
HOW THE FORECAST IS BUILT
Virtual Economist forecasts rates and volume by modeling distinct market components such as the Treasury, spreads, and volume drivers, then connecting those inputs to the final forecast.
10-year Treasury Model
Establishes the macro foundation of mortgage rates by modeling how growth expectations, inflation signals, volatility, and policy dynamics influence Treasury movements over time.
MBS Spread Model
Models how mortgage-backed securities pricing diverges from Treasury yields by accounting for market risk, investor demand, and volatility conditions.
Primary -Secondary Spread Model
Shows how secondary market execution translates into the consumer mortgage rate by accounting for margin behavior, market volatility, and proprietary Optimal Blue pricing signals.
Lock Volume Model
Translates the rate environment into expected market activity by isolating interest rate impacts and seasonal origination patterns. Lock volume is expressed as a year-over-year percentage change to support planning.
These models roll up into forecasts aligned with OBMMI (Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Index), the industry benchmark representing the average locked mortgage rate across the Optimal Blue platform. This structure allows forecasts to be broken down into drivers, explained clearly, and questioned as conditions change.
Designed To Be Explored, Not Locked In
Virtual Economist is built for interaction. Forecasts are meant to be explored, challenged, and refined as new market information emerges. Teams can run what if scenarios to analyze how macroeconomic changes such as rate moves, inflation shifts, or broader economic conditions could impact rates and lock volume.
How it Works
Virtual Economist is accessed through the Optimal Blue platform and built for quick, conversational interaction. Voice or text prompts, visual outputs, and export options make forecasts easy to explore and apply.
CHOOSE
Select a Virtual Economist avatar to guide the experience in a conversational, executive-friendly way.
ASK
Use voice or text to ask practical planning questions, such as: “What happens to rates and lock volume if inflation remains elevated longer than expected?”
EXPLORE
Receive fast, visual responses that show trends, context, and direction so insights are easy to interpret and share.
APPLY
Export outputs to Excel or PDF to support pricing discussions, planning cycles, and scenario reviews.
WHO THE VIRTUAL ECONOMIST SERVES
For teams responsible for navigating market complexity and turning insight into action
Secondary marketing teams
Support pricing conversations and margin discussions with a structured view of what is driving rate movement.
Finance and planning
Incorporate forecasting into budgeting and capacity planning with an approach designed to refresh as conditions evolve.
Executive leadership
Increase confidence in the forecast with explainable components, clear drivers, and supporting context that clarify the why behind the numbers.
Capital markets and analytics
Increase confidence in the forecast with explainable components, drivers, and supporting context that clarify the “why” behind the numbers.
INTRODUCING THE VIRTUAL ECONOMIST
From forecasts to informed action
Virtual Economist helps teams move beyond static projections by making forecasts interactive, explainable, and easy to revisit as conditions change. Explore scenarios, understand what is driving the outlook, and apply those insights to pricing, planning, and strategy.
Experience Your Own Virtual Economist
The Virtual Economist is currently in beta testing and coming soon for general availability.
If you’d like to be notified when the Virtual Economist is released, please enter your information in the form below.
These analytical insights and forecasts are for informational and planning purposes only. All outputs are model-driven and probabilistic, not guarantees of future performance. Users are encouraged to apply independent judgment and consider additional sources when making business decisions.